The Wine World in 2010: What to Expect

High unemployment, pared-down expense accounts and a glut of wine mean that in 2010 consumers will find lower prices and better selection

Not since the millennium folly in 1999 have I seen so much frenzy in the wine market. Back then, with stock markets booming, auction houses setting records for wines and Champagne producers warning there wouldn't be enough fizz for the celebration, producers were enthusiastic and bottles were getting pricier by the month.
What a difference a decade makes. With high unemployment, pared-down expense accounts and a glut of wine, it's the consumer's turn to make merry, with lower prices, more choice and less pretension. Those 99-point ratings don't seem quite so requisite any more to buying good wine.
So what do I see happening in 2010?

1. Prices will continue to drop across the board, from the priciest of Bordeaux and Burgundy to cult California wines that were once available only by subscription. This goes, too, for those Italian, Spanish and Chilean producers who thought that they could easily get the same kind of money those age-old French estates used to command.

2. More people will buy online. Consumers can go to sites like wine-searcher.com or vinfolio.com and compare prices for the same wine not just around the U.S., where many states now allow cross-state shipping, but in the U.K., Germany, and other countries. The spread can be amazing: a wine costing $40 in one store may be $75 in another. Wine stores will stock more inexpensive wines, which account for most of their profits.

3. Wine blogging will increase, mostly among those contending they've found spectacular bottles that will "blow your doors off" for under $15 a bottle. As with all blogging, readers should be wary of the source of such claims.

4. California, alas, will fail to back away from big, high alcohol, oaky reds and whites, because the producers believe that is the style most Americans prefer over subtlety and complexity. The problem is that cheaper wines of this style are so often dreadful, out of balance and undrinkable after one glass. California wineries talk a good game about finesse, but then they overripen their grapes and stick them in new oak for too long.

5. The tsunami of new wines from South America and Eastern Europe will ebb as the market overflows. Greek, Portuguese, and Brazilian wines have had good press in recent years, but unless they keep prices down, they won't make much headway.

6. New Zealand wineries will be in trouble. The country's recent prodigious harvests have glutted the market for their overly fruity punch-like style, and many fans want to move up in quality.

7. Champagne will be in serious trouble. It's not just that prices have gotten way out of whack, with too many selling above $100 a bottle, but other sparkling-wine producers have been canny about getting their bubblies well-positioned, well-priced and well-reviewed. Champagne is reducing output and holding back product already bottled to get some balance, but it's going to be a struggle to win revelers back from Italian prosecco, Californian sparklers and Spanish cavas. There are just too many Champagne labels out there.

8. Fine-dining restaurants will buy nominal numbers of expensive wines after trimmed expense accounts caused them to sit on their previous big capital purchases. They'll wait until guests are telling sommeliers, "Money is no object." Good luck with that. Fewer top-end restaurants will even open, and more modest new eateries will build wine lists with interesting, small labels from around the world and sell them at reasonable mark-ups.

9. More producers will switch to screwtops from cork stoppers in an effort to stem damage to the wines in the bottle from corkiness and oxidation as well as to make wine more accessible to the average consumer. The dirty secret is that most winemakers I talk to say they'd love to switch to screwcaps but fear buyers will think them cheap! Very dumb.

10. Americans will buy more wine at the $10-and-under level. The best bet for an expanding market is China, which is thirsty for good, inexpensive wine. And, like everything else, they'll soon be producing that themselves.

Review by John Mariani (Bloomberg)


Mike Ratcliffe
Warwick Estate & Vilafonte
P.O.Box 2 Elsenburg, 7607, South Africa

FOLLOW ME ON TWITTER www.twitter.com/mikeratcliffe

Simonsberg: Mountain of Women - Blog by Neil Pendock

"A mountain of tedious pretention" is not the comment of a dyspeptic wine critic on the attempts of the Simonsberg ward of Stellenbosch to promote itself as the heart of fine winemaking in SA (which it is), but rather a French review of Federico Fellini's La città delle donne (City of Women) at the 33rd Cannes Film Festival in 1980, immortalized in Wikipedia. "Simon\"s Mountain: a mountain of women"][/caption] In spite of being named after Governor of the Cape Simon van der Stel (urban legend insists it looks like a rather fat Si lying on his back after a couple of bottles of Tassenberg) the Simonsberg is Ground Zero for the feminine imperative in SA winemaking as it is home to a trio of Amazons: May-Eliane de Lencquesaing, Norma Ratcliffe and Anne Cointreau. One of the pioneers of SA wine, Ansela van de Caab, farmed on the Simonsberg and made wine at Muratie at the end of the 17th century. But naming the mountain after Simon's wife Constance wouldn't have worked as it would have caused confusion with that other bastion of female winemaking – the Constantia Valley – and complaints from Catherina Ustings (rumoured mistress of Si) at Steenberg. Although it would have been fun watching today's crop of Stellenbosch marketers try to deal with producers located on a Conberg. The internationally best known Simonsberg She is May, octogenarian former châtelaine of super second growth Pichon Longueville Comtesse de Lalande, somewhat more prosaically referred to as madam hier langsaan (madam next door) by the volk (farm labourers) of Ida's Valley. May cashed in at the top of the last economic cycle, selling a majority interest in her Bordeaux estates to the Rouzaud family of Louis Roederer fame, purveyors of Cristal bubbly to gangs of rap artistes. May bought a 123ha farm (310ha according to Wine Spectator magazine, confusing their hectares with acres) Glenelly in 2003, next door to South African wine royalty, Simon Barlow at Rustenberg. Although Glenelly may sound like a single malt whisky, the mountainous nature of the terrain makes the establishment of a golf links most unlikely, as does 60ha (57ha according to the Platter sighted wine guide) of immaculate vineyards laid out by Pichon enologist Thomas Do-Chi-Nam "after a precise terroir study". Besides, May looked more polo-style plutocrat then golf grandee as she sat on the first floor stoep (verandah) of her all-singing, all-dancing cellar on her first open day, the day after Bastille Day, when the Good Value Guru and I stopped by. The brash, bold winery ("contemporary" according to the French Chamber of Commerce website) was designed by a team of four architects: two Swiss, one French and one local. Which may sound like the start of a joke but the chunky concept matches the mountains in a Le Corbusier-kind of way while the acres of glass windows provide excellent vignettes onto Ida's Valley cowering below the behemoth. "Wait until the trees grow" apologized May "we're in winter now." Three vintages of a red blend Glenelly Hill were shown to the steady stream of lookie-loos who had accepted Madame's public invitation to get up close and personal with her winery: '03, '04 and '06 all made from bought-in grapes at controversial Johannesburg financial mogul Dave King's Quoin Rock cellar further along the Simonsberg. Our favourite was the '06 while a cellar tour revealed several stainless steel tanks full of '09 with barrels of '08 maturing quietly on level -2. Next to a set from the movie Cocoon - May's blue lit back-to-the-future private cellar – racks of Ch. Pichon on the left, local stocks (Beyerskloof a favourite) on the right. Our pourer related that '08 will be the first vintage produced from grapes grown exclusively on the farm. Expect a variation on a traditional Bordeaux theme of Cabernet and Merlot as there was Shiraz in the '04 and even Pinotage in '03. Winemaker Luke O'Cuinneagain reports he is especially convinced by Petit Verdot and has persuaded Madame to release a small quantity (2000 bottles) separately. An industrial stainless steel lift servicing three floors gives the winery the feel of a high-tech hospital, although a profusion of local art by 25-year old Cape Town artist Vicky Sanders does chirp up the fearsomely functional cellar nearly as much as the designer blue chemise worn by winemaker Cool-Hand Luke, which matches his laser blue eyes, to a T. Not all the art is local: medieval French tapestries, glass sculptures, colour-field blobs and colourful cartoons of hometown Bordeaux give the facility an eclectic air. May's art collection continues the popular tradition of Tasting Room as Trojan Horse for farts (Fine Art). The fart galleries of Woodstock (Linda Goodman owned by latter day Lorenzo the Magnificent Jonathan Beare, Brendan Bell-Roberts, Michael Stevenson et. al) are hopelessly too grob for monied art lovers and the wine served at their openings is usually dire dora indeed. But then May herself does look like Peggy Guggenheim in red, albeit with a more elegant nose. On the local scene, the best known lady of wine is the pioneer of Warwick, Canadian-born Norma, who celebrated a quarter of a century making the stuff at the Vineyard Hotel in Claremont earlier this year. The venue was most appropriate as the hotel started out as the country home of Lady Anne Barnard, one of the heroic pioneer ladies of the Cape. Her 18th century vineyard has been revived along the stream at the bottom of the hotel's lush lawns and made the venue doubly suitable. As an aside, I was surprised to note that LAB was a pioneer of interior design. The wonderful Aesthete's Lament blog reports that "Lady Anne Barnard … and her sister [Lady Margaret Fordyce, later Lady Lamb] broke all the rules when they actually started their own 'business' [out of their shared Adam-style house at 21 Berkeley Square, London]. Short of money and with a natural talent for interior decoration, they took to buying or renting houses, doing them up, and letting them furnished for a considerable profit. One or two people had the bravery to see that this was an excellent idea, but others took the view of the lady who complained that 'she wished to God those two very agreeable women would leave off being upholsterers and begin to be women of fashion [again].'" Norma was MC'd by her son Warwick MD Mike who held up a bottle of her maiden vintage noting "the only thing wrong with this wine is that we misspelled the name." But then I can never remember whether her surname is Ratcliff or Ratcliffe and always have to check. The wine in question was La Femme Bleu, a 1984 vintage Cabernet Sauvignon. Norma has always been in the vanguard of wine fashion and the spelling mistake, like printing errors on stamps, makes her wine and its label all the more collectable. Of course if they'd called it La Femme en Bleu, the bleu wouldn't have needed a trailing "e" as Picasso noted when he painted La Femme en Bleu au Beret a century ago. His great rival Matisse did a Femme Bleue although there's much more than an "e" difference between the two paintings. Norma's first vintage was actually a decade earlier. "In 1974 we copied Rustenberg and made a Cinsault/Cabernet blend. The wine was stunning but we decided to go the Bordeaux route and the 1984 Femme Bleu was aged in 100% new French oak at the exorbitant price of R184 a barrel." When I asked my neighbour Adi Badenhorst, former winemaker at Rustenberg, what I should re-plant on Lemoenfontein (my Paardeberg conflict of interest - not!) quick as a flash he answered "Cinsault". Colour coded ladies were much on the mind of another artist, Denton Welch, in Maiden Voyage (Reader's Union, 1945). Recalling the Shanghai nightclubs of his youth a century ago, he remembered "a middle-aged woman dressed all in green. On the table in front of her stood a glass of crème de menthe and she held a green cigarette between her lips." He commented on her to his beefy dancing partner, who replied "Isn't she killing! I've seen her here in red velvet, sipping cherry brandy and smoking a rose-coloured cigarette. Tonight she's all in green. She always has everything to match." "What does she drink when she wants to go blue?" "I don't know, unless it's methylated spirits!" Norma follows in the illustrious footsteps of another Simonsberg She: Ansela. A freed slave, Ansela was wife to 17th century Prussian immigrant Lourens Campher who was granted een zeker stuk land genaamd De Driesprong gelegen onder de Stellenbosch in 1699 by governor Willem Adriaan van der Stel, son of Si. Today De Driesprong is called Muratie, a corruption of murasie or ruin, referring to Ansela's original single room house, an annex to a stable and chicken run and one of the oldest buildings in Stellenbosch. "The horses had the best accommodation" explains present incumbent Muratie matriarch Annatjie Melck, "as they were the most important." The most recent bee in Annatjie's bonnet is restoring Ansela's original homestead. The plan calls for the preservation of the cobbled floor, fireplace and wooden ceiling with the odd Persian carpet added for a splash of luxury and colour. Original mud brickwork to be exposed and the external integrity of the structure faithfully preserved. Restoring the historic house of Ansela after three centuries is architectural karma and another memorial for a unique lady who is commemorated in the estate's flagship blend of Merlot and Cabernet Sauvignon. SA takes its women winemakers so seriously, there is even a Landbouweekblad SA Woman Winemaker of the Year Competition. The 2009 verylongnamedcompetition award went to Ntsiki Biyela, winemaker at Stellakaya who operates from a winery at Bosman's Crossing in the shadow of the Simonsberg. First prize in the competition is "a pamper package from the Lanzerac Wellness Centre and Spa to the value of R1000" which may just be enough to send feminist blood pressure off the scale, but then the winner also does receive "an all expenses paid trip to the winemaking region of Bordeaux, valued at R30 000." If Ntsiki times it well, she can visit May at Pichon with a side trip up to champagne, to Gosset, one of the oldest houses, owned by the family of Anne whose day job is running her Morgenhof estate on the Simonsberg. Morgenhof is a fairytale venue for weddings while its Fantail range of value-for-money wines are some of the best deals in town.


Mike Ratcliffe
Warwick Estate & Vilafonte
P.O.Box 2 Elsenburg, 7607, South Africa

FOLLOW ME ON TWITTER www.twitter.com/mikeratcliffe

The Warwick picnic team having their 2nd lecture on recycling & waste management

Mike Ratcliffe
Warwick Estate & Vilafonte
P.O.Box 2 Elsenburg, 7607, South Africa

FOLLOW ME ON TWITTER www.twitter.com/mikeratcliffe

Some pictures of our new Warwick Estate 'Gourmet Picnic' that launched yesterday

Warwick's first Landrover just arrived for the 'Big 5 Wine Safari' - we launch next week

Mike Ratcliffe
Warwick Estate & Vilafonte
P.O.Box 2 Elsenburg, 7607, South Africa

FOLLOW ME ON TWITTER www.twitter.com/mikeratcliffe

WARWICK'S GOURMET PICNIC & BIG 5 WINE SAFARI - 3 WEEKS TO GO

        

 

 

 

 

 

WEBSITE LAUNCHES NEXT WEEK

MORE INFO COMING SOON

Platter 2010 Warwick - well done everyone

 

MARKETING REFLECTS CHANGING DEMAND OF NAPA VALLEY WINE

More than a year into the economic downturn, Napa Valley vintners are looking toward the future. “I think that we’re already starting to see a little bit of a turnaround as far as wine sales go,” St. Helena winery owner Kent Rasmussen said. Wine drinkers are buying more readily than they did a few months ago, he said, and retailers and restaurateurs are finally stocking up again. During the second quarter of 2009 — the last quarter for which information on sales tax revenue is available — winery sales in Napa County actually rose 3.9 percent over the second quarter of 2008. Spring 2008 was about the time that wine sales in Napa County first started to slip. Now, vintners are waiting on the holidays, when the bulk of their wine is sold, to see if there’s reason to be optimistic. “The fourth quarter is when the thing really crashed last year, so you better see a darn good increase this year, because a good portion of our production is sold during the holidays,” said Jack Cakebread, owner of Cakebread Cellars in Rutherford. “This is sort of the crunch time,” Napa Valley Vintners spokesman Terry Hall said, “because the fourth quarter really is the most active sales period for wine.”

 

The new ‘normal’

Regardless of how things go this winter, some say the Napa Valley wine industry may have changed forever. “I don’t think it can go back to normal,” Calistoga winery owner Laura Zahtila said. “I think we’ll have a new normal.” New Jersey wine merchant Gary Fisch agrees. “It will never be like it was,” he said, “and boy, did I like what it was.” Deborah Steinthal, founder of Napa-based Scion Advisors, predicts that $75 wines will move down permanently to $50, and Napa Valley wineries will be forced to reconsider their luxury-only portfolios. “I think we’ve got about three to five years to redefine our position in the world of wine,” she said, “and that means not just in terms of proving we can sell as much wine in the categories we’ve been selling in the past.” Ultra-premium wine producers could have an especially hard time if wine buyers permanently tighten their belts. “I think there’s going to be a lot less cult cab out there,” Zahtila said. “I think that wineries need to get realistic about what people should be and are willing to pay for their wine.” Bill Harlan, whose Harlan Estates wines go for up to $500 a bottle online, said he expects a shakeout in the next three to five years among cult wine producers, but he adds that those who survive will come out even stronger.

“I feel that if we stay the course and continue to work on producing better and better wines and build relationships one-by-one, then things will come back,” he said. Relationships may be the key to success, according to industry officials. As people change the way they buy wine, and as distributors change the way they sell it, wineries are beginning to focus more on selling directly to consumers than relying on other retail channels. “National distribution makes sense for some wineries, but direct is more critical to survival and growth,” Steinthal said. This may mean a new approach to marketing, one that emphasizes personal relationships with consumers. “If we just keep doing things as we have done in the past and hope things will eventually come around to the way they were 10 or 20 years ago, I think many businesses will be sadly surprised at the outcome,” said Ed Matovcik, vice president of Foster’s Wine Estates, and one of a group of wine industry representatives lobbying for fewer restrictions on local winery marketing events. Winemaker Mike Grgich said he believes that Napa Valley is entering “a new chapter of the wine industry.” “We can learn from this,” he said, “(but) we have to work hard and smart and learn new ways of marketing.” Some vintners say this means more than just changing their marketing techniques, it means changing to whom they market.

The younger generation.

Especially as Baby Boomers retire and cut back on their wine purchases, some wineries are starting to focus marketing efforts on the younger generation of wine buyers, including those born approximately from 1980 to 2000, known as the “millennials.” “The millennial category is really stepping up,” Steinthal said, “and wineries are learning how to market to millennials. Folks are really thinking through how to leverage the next generation of their family with a new category of customers, a new generation of customers.” Ceja Vineyards, for example, is one of the few wineries in Napa County that is actually expanding right now, and winery president Amelia Ceja attributes its success in large part to her children. “I have three children in their early 20s and they’re big on all the new technology and on the Internet,” Ceja said, “so that has been extremely helpful. We don’t do a lot of advertising, but our presence on online social sites has helped. We do a lot of videos and marketing on Facebook and Twitter.” Ceja said she and her children spend about an hour a day using Web 2.0 tools and social networking sites to market their wines. “It’s knowing what the customer wants and how to capture that customer’s attention,” she said, “and people are attracted to the millennials.” Ultimately, those who are quick to adapt may actually come out stronger than they were before the economic downturn. “In any kind of downtime, the industry gets stronger,” Steinthal said. “The innovators really show up, and so unfortunately, it means some folks drop out, but for the long-term health of the industry, the strong get stronger. Fisch agrees. “We’re entering a new economic age, and the people that can change and adjust will thrive,” he said. “The people that stick their head in the sand and say, ‘This is the way we’ve always done it and this is the way it will continue,’ I think will have challenges.”

Ken Forrester at the WOSA USA conference

Mike Ratcliffe
Warwick Estate & Vilafonte
P.O.Box 2 Elsenburg, 7607, South Africa

FOLLOW ME ON TWITTER www.twitter.com/mikeratcliffe

ROOTSTOCK: IS THE GRASS GREENER ON THE OTHER SIDE?

Rootstock invites you to our last event of 2009. We explore GREEN ISSUES in the winelands, viz Organic , Biodynamic , Bio-logic  and Carbon Neutral . Join us to hear from our panel of producers how they are applying their approaches, and what they are doing to make a difference to our environment. Participate in the panel discussion which will ensue. We encourage active debate from all present. We can all learn from their experiences, and invite you to ask questions, in fact if you would like to email questions to us before the event - we will pass them on to the speakers. Emails to info@rootstock.co.za. Our panel consists of:

• Michael Back from Backsberg on their Carbon Neutral work
• Michelle du Preez from Bon Cap on their organic production
• Johnathan Grieve from Avondale on their Bio-Logic approach
• Johan Reyneke from Reyneke Wines on his Biodynamic approach.

If you would like to contribute to the discussion - feel free to participate after they have made their 10 minute presentations.

• How do these approaches differ? How are they the same?
• What impact are they making on their environment?
• What impact are we making on the environment but not adopting similar approaches?

Bookings are essential through http://www.rootstock.co.za/ ONLINE only. You need to register with Rootstock to attend. Rootstock membership is free - but you pay for events attended.

• Date: TUES 24th NOV 2009
• Time: 5.30pm for 6pm start until about 8.30pm
• Venue: Backsberg Estate (thanks to them for making their venue available and providing wines)
• Cost: R50 (to cover snacks) - bring cash with you

If you book and do not attend - you will still be invoiced accordingly. For any urgent matters please contact Judy Brower on 083 301 8569 or email info@rootstock.co.za